Dashboard — Neonatal Heat Risk

Target City

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Target Year

Emission Scenario

SSP1-2.6 Low emissions — Paris-aligned

SSP2-4.5 Intermediate — current policies

SSP5-8.5 High emissions — no action

Mitigation Levers

🌳 Canopy cover +0%

~1.2°C cooling per 10% increase

🏠 Cool roofs +0%

~0.8°C cooling per 10% deployment

Projections integrate Open-Meteo CMIP6 ensemble with Chersich et al. (2020) neonatal exposure-response functions. Research estimates only.

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Select a city and generate a projection

17 African cities preloaded with DHS neonatal mortality data. Climate projections fetched live from Open-Meteo CMIP6 ensemble.

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Attributable Neonatal Deaths / yr

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Direct hyperthermia + preterm birth pathway

DALYs

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28 life-yrs per neonatal death

Excess Stillbirths / yr

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Reported separately

Peak Temp (Tx5d)

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5-day rolling max

Heatwave Days / yr

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≥32°C · ≥3 consecutive

Annual Births

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Exposed population base

Risk Pathways

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Direct Neonatal Hyperthermia

Chersich et al. (2020) · β = 0.1133 · threshold 32°C

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deaths / yr

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FORMULA

Deaths = Births × (NMR/1000) × AF × (HW/365) where AF = (RR−1)/RR, RR = exp(β × ΔT)

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Deaths

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Source:

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Heat-Induced Preterm Birth Deaths

Chersich 2020 + Blencowe 2013 · RR 1.05/°C · threshold 29°C

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deaths / yr

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FORMULA

Preterm_excess = Births × PTB_rate × (RR−1) × (HW/365) Deaths = Preterm_excess × (PTB_NMR / 1000)

RR_ptb

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Excess PTB

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Source:

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Excess Stillbirths

Chersich et al. (2020) · RR 1.08/°C · threshold 29°C

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stillbirths / yr

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FORMULA

Stillbirths = Births × SBR × (RR_sb − 1) × (HW/365) Reported separately; not added to neonatal death count.

RR_sb

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Excess SB

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Source:

Burden Distribution by Pathway

Escalation Trajectory · CMIP6 Ensemble

Click "Show Trajectory" in the sidebar to populate this chart.

Strategic Analysis

Mortality Risk

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Preterm Birth Mechanism

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Adaptation Priorities

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NeoHeat provides climate-health projections using the OpenMatrix neonatal modeling framework. These projections integrate CMIP6 climate data with epidemiological exposure-response functions. All outputs are research estimates — Chersich et al. (2020) · Blencowe et al. (2013) · WHO GHO (2023).